L'emprunt national ou emprunt sarkozy de 2010

Emprunt Sarkozy

"French grand loan" or an additional public bond

le 15/12/2009


President Sarkozy announced this morning an additional public bond of EUR 22bn so-called "grand loan". The banks' reimbursement will finance another EUR 13bn of spending. Overall, the public investment will rise by EUR 35 bn or 1.8% of 2010 GDP. It is to finance "projects for the future and rising potential growth" as higher education and research, numeric technology, green energies, SME's projects.

The distribution will be:



The "grand loan" could be spent from January 2010. It therefore could push up the French public debt by EUR 22 bn compared with the last forecasts. Indeed, it will mainly be used to finance foundations or acquisitions of stakes, which do not impact on the budget deficit but will ber added to the debt stock according the Maastricht definition. This additional borrowing will, however, contribute to an increase in the the deficit next year by adding to interest payments on government debt. But these additional interest payments will be offset by a reduction in public expenditure according to Mr Sarkozy's speach. We therefore have not revised upward the public deficit forecast for 2010.

The impact on the growth will be later. Firstly, the public spending plans in the fiscal stimulus plan are not yet ready to be implemented. Secondly, the additional public spending should be subjected to a Government commissioner who will estimate their economic yield before giving its agreement. Thirdly, we don't have the details of the public spending and the yield in public invesment is often lower than private investment. Finally, this additional "grand loan" could have a ricardian effect on the private sector, i.e interest rates rise and household savings increase. We therefor not expecting the "grand loan " to have any significant impact on 2010 and 2011 GDP growth.

In conclusion:

 

l'épargne des français

de 1818 à 2010

A neuf reprises l'état français a eu recours à ce mode de financement

suite

liens finance

Emprunt Sarkozy